In the day since US President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, Israel launched its deadliest attack against Lebanon, killing hundreds of people and testing the fragile truce to its limits.
The attacks laid bare a key, and potentially crucial, difference between the two sides’ understanding of the ceasefire: While Iran says Lebanon forms an “inseparable part” of the agreement, Israel and the US insist it does not.
So where does that leave the ceasefire, and the US’ demands for Iran to reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz?
- Lebanon: Several fresh strikes hit Lebanon this morning, one of which killed more than 10 people including women and children, the country’s National News Agency reported. The IDF also issued an evacuation for huge swathes of Beirut’s southern suburbs today, another indication that its operations remain deadly. That came after least 182 people were yesterday killed in Israeli strikes which drew international condemnation, particularly as Pakistan, which has acted as a mediator, originally stated Lebanon was part of the deal. US Vice President JD Vance claimed there had been a “legitimate misunderstanding” regarding Lebanon’s inclusion in the ceasefire. Nonetheless, Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in response to those strikes, semi-official news agency Fars reported yesterday. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf today doubled down on that posture, saying that “ceasefire violations carry explicit costs and STRONG responses.”
- Strait of Hormuz: Only very few vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the ceasefire began, according to ship tracking data, contrary to Trump’s initial insistence the truce was contingent on the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the crucial chokepoint. Yesterday, Vance reiterated that if Iran doesn’t reopen the waterway, the ceasefire will end.
- Gulf states and Iran: Meanwhile, the ceasefire appears to have come into effect in the Gulf region and Iran. For the first time since this war began, no Gulf countries have reported overnight attacks aside from Bahrain, which said it had intercepted seven drones in the last 24 hours, not necessarily overnight. The UAE even said explicitly it had not been targeted overnight.
- Talks: Still, preparations are underway for talks in Islamabad this weekend. Vance, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff are expected to attend.
