Nike is scheduled to release its fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on Oct. 1, with analysts expecting declines in both revenue and earnings from a year earlier.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate calls for revenue of $11.4 billion, down 2.7% from the same quarter last year. Earnings are expected at 44 cents per share, representing a 10.2% decline from the year-ago figure.
Earnings estimates have fallen by a penny over the past 30 days, adding to expectations of a challenging quarter. Still, Nike exceeded the consensus estimate by 81.8% in its most recent quarter and has delivered an average earnings surprise of 56.8% over the past four quarters.
China, Tariffs and Promotions in Focus
Nike enters the quarter amid a broader transition involving structural changes, macroeconomic pressures and uneven performance across regions. While the company has made progress under its “Win Now” strategy, tariffs, promotions and restructuring actions continue to weigh on its earnings profile.
Greater China remains a key pressure point. Nike expects sales declines in the region to continue into fiscal 2027 as it works to clean up its marketplace and reduce sell-in levels. Management said these efforts would continue throughout the fiscal year and affect revenue growth.
The Zacks model expects Greater China revenue to decline 16.4% in the first quarter of fiscal 2027.
Nike Direct is also facing weak digital demand and heavy discounting, which have limited improvements in profitability. Weakness in Sportswear, a highly promotional EMEA market and the prolonged turnaround at Converse are adding further volatility to results.
For consumers, investors and the broader sportswear market, Nike’s results will offer a look at how the company’s marketplace cleanup, regional challenges and efforts to improve profitability are affecting its financial performance.
Nike’s gross margin remains under pressure from higher U.S. tariffs and elevated markdown activity. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, gross margin expanded 890 basis points to 49.2%, helped by a 900-basis-point benefit from the recovery of IEEPA tariffs.
Management expects gross margin expansion to begin in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, earlier than previously projected. However, Nike’s Earnings ESP currently stands at -2.73%, while its Zacks Rank is #4 (Sell).
