An anonymous gambler made nearly $436,000 betting on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s capture just hours before the US government announced it, raising concerns about possible insider knowledge.
The bet was placed on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-powered prediction platform, which allows users to wager on political and other events. The account, which joined the site only last month, made four positions on Venezuela, turning a $32,537 bet into a massive payout. The identity of the account holder remains unknown, identified only by a blockchain code.
Data from Polymarket shows the odds of Maduro leaving power were just 6.5% on the afternoon of 2 January, but surged to 11% shortly before midnight and spiked further in the early hours of 3 January—just before former President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social confirming Maduro was in US custody.
Dennis Kelleher, CEO of financial reform group Better Markets, told CBS News the trade “has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information.” Other users on Polymarket also earned tens of thousands of dollars on similar bets.
The incident has drawn attention from US lawmakers. Congressman Ritchie Torres, a Democrat from New York, introduced legislation seeking to ban government employees from trading on prediction markets using material nonpublic information.
Prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi, have grown rapidly in recent years, allowing bets on politics, sports, and other events. They attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in wagers during the 2024 US presidential election. While insider trading is illegal in the stock market, such markets are less regulated, though platforms like Kalshi explicitly prohibit insider trading, including by government employees.
Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor for both Polymarket and Kalshi, highlighting the growing connections between political figures and the prediction market industry.
