As hopes for regime change in Iran fade, Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a major political test over the outcome of Israel’s war with Tehran.
For decades, the Israeli prime minister has built much of his political identity around confronting Iran, which he views as Israel’s biggest threat. The recent conflict was presented by Netanyahu as a defining moment, even describing it as a “fateful campaign for our very existence.” Israeli military leaders also framed the operation as a historic effort to secure the country’s future.
However, the original goal of regime change in Tehran now appears unlikely. Despite major military strikes and the assassination of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, the Iranian government still remains in power. Netanyahu has recently signalled that the war may end without removing the regime.
Instead, Israeli officials are emphasizing the damage done to Iran’s military capabilities. According to the Israel Defense Forces, the strikes targeted missile systems, weapons facilities and key leadership figures, weakening Iran’s ability to threaten Israel in the near future.
Netanyahu argues that the conflict has already shifted the balance of power in the Middle East. Speaking at a press conference, he said the war had changed Israel, Iran and the region itself. But analysts say the real question now is whether those military gains will translate into long-term security.
Critics warn that without regime change, Iran could eventually rebuild its military programs. Israel fought a similar war with Iran in 2025, which Netanyahu also called a historic victory, yet the conflict resumed less than a year later.
The prime minister also faces challenges on multiple fronts. Israel remains in conflict with Hamas in Gaza, while the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah has intensified attacks from Lebanon following the latest escalation.
Israeli forces have expanded operations in southern Lebanon, and military leaders say dismantling Hezbollah’s capabilities could take considerable time. Some officials are even considering a wider ground invasion.
Meanwhile, international pressure is growing to bring the war to an end. Rising oil prices and fears of a broader regional conflict have pushed United States officials to signal that the fighting with Iran should wind down.
For Netanyahu, the stakes are also political. He is expected to call elections later this year and may try to frame the war as a strategic victory. However, critics say his long-standing promises of “total victory” over Iran and its allies may be difficult to prove if the Iranian regime survives.
After years of defining his leadership around confronting Iran, Netanyahu now faces a moment that could shape both his political legacy and Israel’s future security.
