The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 has reignited global discussions about the future of U.S.-China relations, one of the most consequential global partnerships. With longstanding economic and political tensions escalating over the years, speculation has emerged over whether Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy might pave the way for what some observers are calling a “grand bargain” between the two superpowers. Could Trump’s unique leadership style bring breakthroughs—or simply deepen divides?

During his first term, Trump adopted a hardline stance toward China, highlighted by the 2018 implementation of steep tariffs on Chinese goods. While controversial, this strategy culminated in the “Phase One” trade deal in 2020, where Beijing committed to purchasing $200 billion in U.S. goods—primarily agricultural exports like soybeans. Critics slammed the agreement for its narrow focus and lack of strategic depth, but for Trump, it was a branding win, demonstrating his self-styled mastery as a dealmaker.

Fast forward to today, and Trump’s second term looks poised to follow a similar path: aiming for highly publicized but economically targeted results. Reports of a phone call in January 2025 between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have fueled speculation that both sides may be exploring opportunities for rapprochement, despite the tense climate. Observers are now wondering if a new trade deal—referred to humorously by some as “soybeans on steroids”—could be on the table. The idea would expand on the structure of the Phase One deal but with even larger demands and potentially broader terms.

Agriculture seems to remain a key point in any potential negotiations, as Trump’s political base, particularly farmers, benefits directly from increased Chinese imports. Additionally, Trump has relied on tariffs as his favorite bargaining chip, leveraging them to push for swift agreements. If history is a guide, his second-term strategy may once again prioritize short-term economic wins over painstakingly negotiated, long-term security frameworks.

However, not all analysts share enthusiasm about the potential for a grand bargain. Skeptics note that Trump’s transactional diplomacy often sidelines America’s allies and creates unintended consequences. During his first term, Trump criticized trade policies of traditional partners such as Japan and South Korea while appearing to admire authoritarian leaders, including Xi. This approach risked alienating key stakeholders in the U.S. regional security architecture, while potentially emboldening Beijing’s aspirations in areas like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Ray Dalio, a leading hedge fund investor, described Trump’s deal-focused style as a “double-edged sword.” While such strategies may yield quick wins in trade, they risk exacerbating long-term tensions. Dalio has cautioned that Trump’s second term could see heightened friction between the U.S. and China, particularly as the two powers jockey for economic and military dominance. Indeed, some analysts predict that a renewed focus on tariffs, security threats, and tech warfare—potentially including actions against Chinese entities like TikTok or fentanyl producers—will set the stage for an intense geopolitical tug-of-war.

Still, Trump’s unpredictability may be his greatest asset. His decision-making often defies conventional wisdom, whether through aggressive tariffs or surprise overtures to adversaries. U.S. farmers, in particular, are likely watching closely, as another high-profile trade deal with Beijing could stabilize demand for their crops amid ongoing global uncertainty.