England is experiencing a sharp surge in flu cases this winter, with hospital admissions jumping 55% in a single week, according to NHS England data. Officials warn that between 5,000 and 8,000 beds could be occupied by flu patients by the weekend, placing the system under significant pressure.
Unlike previous seasons, the 2025 flu wave began around a month earlier, first appearing in October, according to UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) records. The agency tracks the percentage of flu-positive tests from GPs and hospitals, offering a reliable indicator of community infection rates. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland are reporting similar trends, suggesting a UK-wide early outbreak.
Virologists attribute the early spread to a subtle genetic shift in the predominant H3N2 influenza strain. While the so-called “super-flu” is not medically defined, the novelty of this virus in the population may reduce immunity, allowing faster transmission.
Children and young adults are particularly affected. UKHSA data show that school and university-aged individuals are testing positive at higher rates, prompting some schools to reinstate Covid-style precautions, including sanitisation stations and limiting group singing. The spread among young people raises concerns that the virus could reach older, more vulnerable relatives.
Hospital admissions for influenza and respiratory illnesses are rising sharply. Last week, an average of 2,660 beds were occupied by flu patients in England, up from 1,717 the previous week. Patients over 85 are five times more likely to require hospitalisation than the general population. With roughly 105,000 beds available nationally—and winter occupancy typically running at 95%—a surge beyond 5,000 flu patients could strain NHS capacity, warns NHS England chief Sir Jim Mackey.
Vaccination remains a critical line of defence. The NHS recommends flu jabs for older adults, young children, pregnant women, clinically vulnerable individuals, carers, and frontline health staff. While around 70% of older adults and care home residents have received the vaccine, uptake among younger at-risk groups and NHS workers remains lower, at approximately 40–42%. Even with genetic changes in this year’s strain, vaccines are expected to offer strong protection against severe disease.
Health experts urge continued vigilance: hand hygiene, staying home when unwell, and timely vaccination can reduce pressure on hospitals and protect those most vulnerable to this early and unusually active flu season.
