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Currency consolidation as dollar stabilizes, euro near one-month low

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File Photo: Unamortized Bond Discount

File Photo: Unamortized Bond Discount

The dollar held steady on Monday as the euro stayed near a more than one-month low amid political uncertainty in Europe and investors awaited U.S. economic data.
As far-right and leftist parties gather momentum ahead of France’s unexpected legislative election, straining President Emmanuel Macron’s moderate administration, investors worry about a euro area budget crisis.

Five sources told Reuters that European Central Bank policymakers had no plans to contemplate emergency bond purchases of French bonds after last week’s violent sell-off.
The euro fell 0.04% to $1.07025 after hitting its lowest since May 1 at $1.06678 on Friday. Last week, the euro fell 0.88%, its worst weekly drop since April.
The political turbulence is euro-bearish, but “as the euro accounts for around 57% of the US dollar index weighting, the fall of the euro has indirectly benefited the dollar,” said City Index senior market analyst Matt Simpson.

After reaching its highest level since May 2 at 105.80 on Friday, the dollar index was unchanged at 105.54.
On Sunday, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said it was a “reasonable prediction” that the bank would drop rates once this year, in December.
The median expectation from the 19 U.S. central bankers was for one interest rate drop this year, according to Fed projections released last week.

U.S. retail sales on Tuesday and flash PMIs on Friday may indicate consumption and economic health, but there is no substantial economic data to aid the Fed’s outlook this week.
“Data would likely have to miss estimates by a wide margin to rekindle bets on more Fed cuts, with the FOMC meeting still fresh in the minds of investors,” Simpson said.
Sterling stayed at $1.2681. Reuters polled experts and most predicted the first Bank of England rate cut would be Aug. 1 due to rising inflation pressures.


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