Russia, the United States and Ukraine have signalled that negotiations to end nearly four years of full-scale war are approaching a critical stage, but several major disagreements continue to threaten a final agreement. US President Donald Trump has described these as “very thorny, very tough issues”, with territorial control and the future of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant among the most contentious.
While the Kremlin has said talks are nearing their conclusion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to consult European leaders in France on 6 January. However, any unresolved issue could still derail a deal.
Dispute over eastern Ukraine
One of the most difficult obstacles concerns eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to demand full control of Donetsk and Luhansk, despite Russian forces not occupying the entire territory. Key cities such as Sloviansk and Kramatorsk remain under Ukrainian control.
Zelensky has rejected any full withdrawal, citing both constitutional restrictions and the presence of hundreds of thousands of civilians. He has proposed a compromise involving reciprocal troop withdrawals, the creation of a demilitarised or free economic zone, and international monitoring along the current front line. Analysts say it is unlikely Moscow would accept such terms, especially as Russian military leaders claim continued battlefield gains.
Despite this, Russian officials have hinted at possible flexibility. Kremlin envoy Yuri Ushakov recently suggested the possibility of removing both Russian and Ukrainian troops from parts of Donbas, while still insisting the territory remain under Russian sovereignty.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant standoff
Another major sticking point is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, occupied by Russian forces since March 2022. The facility’s reactors have been shut down for years and rely on external power supplied by Ukraine to prevent a nuclear incident. Restarting the plant would require significant investment, including rebuilding infrastructure damaged during the war.
Ukraine has proposed demilitarising the area and turning it into a jointly managed economic zone. Zelensky said the US has suggested managing the plant as a joint enterprise involving Washington, Kyiv and Moscow, though Ukraine has called this unrealistic. Russia’s state nuclear agency insists only Moscow can safely operate the plant, while allowing limited Ukrainian access to the electricity it produces.
Any compromise would require trust between the two sides, which currently remains absent.
Deep mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow
Despite diplomatic optimism, mutual suspicion continues to undermine negotiations. Zelensky has openly said he does not trust Putin or believe Russia genuinely wants peace. Moscow, meanwhile, has accused Ukraine of attempted drone attacks near a Putin residence—claims Kyiv denies, describing them as pretexts for further Russian strikes.
Additional unresolved issues
Other unresolved matters include Ukraine’s demand for long-term security guarantees similar to Nato protections, which Russia strongly opposes—particularly the presence of European troops on Ukrainian soil. Ukraine also wants to maintain a large standing army, another point of contention.
Reconstruction costs are estimated at around $800bn, raising questions over Russia’s financial responsibility. Western officials have discussed using frozen Russian assets in Europe, but Moscow has rejected the idea.
Ukraine’s ambitions to join Nato and the European Union also remain divisive. Nato membership is constitutionally enshrined in Ukraine, yet widely seen as unacceptable to Russia and unlikely in the near term.
Question of public approval
Zelensky has argued that any peace agreement must be approved by a national referendum, citing public opinion showing strong support for peace but rejection of territorial concessions. He has proposed a 60-day ceasefire to allow for preparations. Russia opposes this, arguing it would only prolong the conflict—an assessment Trump has said he understands.
Without such a vote, Zelensky believes any deal would lack legitimacy, adding yet another challenge to negotiations already fraught with complexity.
