US forces are preparing to leave their remaining bases in Iraq, ending a military presence that has lasted more than two decades and reshaping the security balance in a country caught between Washington and Tehran.
The final withdrawal is scheduled for September 30. The departure follows an agreement reached in 2024 under then-President Joe Biden and is being carried out by the administration of President Donald Trump while the United States is engaged in a wider conflict with Iran.
Around 4,500 Americans have died during the more than 20 years of US military involvement in Iraq.
Iran-Backed Groups Welcome the Withdrawal
Iran and its allies in Iraq have portrayed the US departure as a major victory.
Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst who studies Iran-aligned Shi’ite armed groups, said the withdrawal would remove a US military presence that had served as a counterweight to Iranian influence.
He said pro-Iranian militia groups could seek to turn the departure into greater influence over Iraq’s security and political decision-making.
Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander in the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the withdrawal as a victory for Iran-backed armed factions and said Iraq’s sovereignty should be secured without foreign forces.
Iranian officials have also welcomed the move. Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of Iran’s parliamentary National Security Commission, said lasting security would prevail once US forces leave Iraq and the wider region.
Concerns Over a Security Vacuum
While the end of the US military presence has broad support among Iraqis who favor greater national sovereignty, some security officials and community leaders have warned that the timing could create vulnerabilities.
Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal leader in Fallujah, said Iraq still needed to strengthen its ability to manage the country’s security independently.
He argued that Iraqis broadly support full sovereignty but warned that a sudden reduction in international military support could create a security vacuum.
Iraq has maintained unusually close political and military relationships with both the United States and Iran in recent years, despite the rivalry between the two countries. Iraqi territory has at times also become a battleground between their competing interests.
From the 2003 Invasion to the Final Withdrawal
The United States invaded Iraq in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein’s government.
US forces subsequently occupied the country, helped establish a Shi’ite-led government and fought a prolonged insurgency before withdrawing at the end of 2011.
American troops returned less than three years later as part of an international campaign against Islamic State. The group seized large parts of Iraq and Syria before losing its territorial strongholds during military operations between 2014 and 2017.
The US military presence in Iraq has continued in a smaller capacity since then, supporting Iraqi security forces and conducting counterterrorism operations.
During this year’s conflict with Iran, seven of the 18 US service members listed as killed were in Iraq. The latest was an Army sergeant who died in July during the controlled destruction of a drone at a base near Erbil.
The United States also killed Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani in a 2020 strike near Baghdad’s airport, while Iran-aligned groups have repeatedly attacked US positions in Iraq.
Islamic State Remains a Concern
The withdrawal is also raising concerns about Islamic State, which lost its territorial control in Iraq nearly a decade ago but retains sleeper cells.
Some Iraqi and Kurdish security officials say the militant group could attempt to exploit reduced access to US intelligence, logistics and surveillance capabilities.
Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said security forces had observed increased activity by Islamic State sleeper cells after the planned withdrawal became public.
Iraqi security officials have also said they disrupted an alleged Islamic State plot involving suicide attacks timed around the US departure.
Colonel Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, said the group was seeking to demonstrate that it remained capable of carrying out attacks despite its territorial defeat.
A New Phase for Iraq’s Security
The departure of US forces marks another major turning point in Iraq’s post-2003 history.
For Washington, it ends a long military chapter that included the initial invasion, counterinsurgency operations and the later campaign against Islamic State.
For Iraq, the withdrawal places greater responsibility on its own security institutions while potentially changing the influence of Iran-aligned armed groups and creating new challenges from Islamic State remnants.
How Iraq manages those competing security pressures will shape the country’s next phase after the final US troops leave.
